The impact of climate change on the European road network

Karmen Fifer Bizjak, Andrew Dawson, Inge Hoff, Lasse Makkonen, Jussi S. Ylhäisi, Alessandra Carrera

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Anticipated climate changes in Europe over the next 100 years were estimated using two different scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions and two computational approaches. The principal manifestations of climate change within the European region are predicted to be a rise in temperature, an increase in rainfall intensity in most areas and a decrease in freeze-thaw cycling. The impacts of such possible climate changes were then estimated for pavements and the pavement-related infrastructure. It should be noted that the life cycle of pavements is much shorter than the time span over which climate change might have a statistically significant influence on pavement performance. Several analytical and numerical analyses were performed in order to simulate the effect of future climate change, taking into account the fact that the effect of these changes on pavements structures will depend on local conditions. In particular, temperature and rainfall increase will be a challenge for asphalts, as both rutting and stripping of asphalt layers can be expected. In countries where roads are presently frequently frozen in winter, the length of this period of freezing will be reduced. For this reason, many thin and unsealed pavements will need to be upgraded if high bearing capacity is to be maintained. In coastal and low-lying areas raised water tables may occur due to areas where flood waters may collect, or due to raised sea levels. For most applications, appropriate responses to these changes in pavement performance will be achievable through the use of new design criteria with regard to temperature and the return period of storm flows. More attention needs to be paid to drainage systems, which should be self-cleaning and easy to inspect.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)281-295
Number of pages14
JournalProceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Transport
Volume167
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

pavement
climate change
asphalt
rutting
temperature
return period
road network
precipitation intensity
bearing capacity
freezing
water table
life cycle
carbon dioxide
infrastructure
sea level
road
rainfall
winter

Keywords

  • environment
  • mathematical modelling
  • roads and highways

Cite this

Fifer Bizjak, Karmen ; Dawson, Andrew ; Hoff, Inge ; Makkonen, Lasse ; Ylhäisi, Jussi S. ; Carrera, Alessandra. / The impact of climate change on the European road network. In: Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Transport. 2014 ; Vol. 167, No. 5. pp. 281-295.
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The impact of climate change on the European road network. / Fifer Bizjak, Karmen; Dawson, Andrew; Hoff, Inge; Makkonen, Lasse; Ylhäisi, Jussi S.; Carrera, Alessandra.

In: Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Transport, Vol. 167, No. 5, 2014, p. 281-295.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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