The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation

Tiina Koljonen (Corresponding Author), Antti Lehtilä

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)S410-S420
Number of pages10
JournalEnergy Economics
Volume34
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

Greenhouse gases
Climate change
Gas emissions
Energy utilization
Costs
Developing countries
Sensitivity analysis
Uncertainty
Climate change mitigation
Demand uncertainty
Scenarios
Energy demand
Asia
Greenhouse gas emissions
Abatement
India
Energy consumption
South-East Asia
Energy systems
China

Keywords

  • Asian Modeling Exercise
  • China
  • greenhouse gas mitigation
  • India
  • South-East Asia
  • TIMES odel

Cite this

@article{5f2dda98c8fa45eeba5270387c280629,
title = "The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation",
abstract = "Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected.",
keywords = "Asian Modeling Exercise, China, greenhouse gas mitigation, India, South-East Asia, TIMES odel",
author = "Tiina Koljonen and Antti Lehtil{\"a}",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1016/j.eneco.2012.05.003",
language = "English",
volume = "34",
pages = "S410--S420",
journal = "Energy Economics",
issn = "0140-9883",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "3",

}

The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation. / Koljonen, Tiina (Corresponding Author); Lehtilä, Antti.

In: Energy Economics, Vol. 34, No. 3, 2012, p. S410-S420.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - The impact of residential, commercial, and transport energy demand uncertainties in Asia on climate change mitigation

AU - Koljonen, Tiina

AU - Lehtilä, Antti

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected.

AB - Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected.

KW - Asian Modeling Exercise

KW - China

KW - greenhouse gas mitigation

KW - India

KW - South-East Asia

KW - TIMES odel

U2 - 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.05.003

DO - 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.05.003

M3 - Article

VL - 34

SP - S410-S420

JO - Energy Economics

JF - Energy Economics

SN - 0140-9883

IS - 3

ER -