Towards long-term foresight for transport: Envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100

Heidi Auvinen, Anu Tuominen, Toni Ahlqvist

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    5 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Purpose - This paper aims to introduce a process for constructing long-term visions of the transport system. The vision building process is demonstrated by creating a concise test vision of the Finnish transport system in 2100. Design/methodology/approach - The vision building process combines four futures methods that support the long-term foresight approach: transition management, PESTE analysis, the futures table and the Delphi method. The process is validated with a test vision. Findings - A three-step vision building process for long-term transport system visions is structured. The three consecutive steps of the process are environmental scanning, constructing futures tables and visions, and describing visions. In addition, a demonstrative test vision is created to describe a possible future transport system in 2100 in a metropolitan Finland. The successful application of the developed method supports further work on creating full-scale strategy-driven visions. Originality/value - Futures studies analyzing transport systems and infrastructures tend to focus on short- to medium-term perspectives. This paper presents a unique method for constructing alternative long-term visions as far as 50 to 100 years into the future
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)191 - 206
    JournalForesight
    Volume14
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2012
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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    Keywords

    • Innovation policy
    • roadmapping
    • systemicity
    • forward-looking policy design
    • foresight
    • socio-technical transformation

    Cite this

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    title = "Towards long-term foresight for transport: Envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100",
    abstract = "Purpose - This paper aims to introduce a process for constructing long-term visions of the transport system. The vision building process is demonstrated by creating a concise test vision of the Finnish transport system in 2100. Design/methodology/approach - The vision building process combines four futures methods that support the long-term foresight approach: transition management, PESTE analysis, the futures table and the Delphi method. The process is validated with a test vision. Findings - A three-step vision building process for long-term transport system visions is structured. The three consecutive steps of the process are environmental scanning, constructing futures tables and visions, and describing visions. In addition, a demonstrative test vision is created to describe a possible future transport system in 2100 in a metropolitan Finland. The successful application of the developed method supports further work on creating full-scale strategy-driven visions. Originality/value - Futures studies analyzing transport systems and infrastructures tend to focus on short- to medium-term perspectives. This paper presents a unique method for constructing alternative long-term visions as far as 50 to 100 years into the future",
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    author = "Heidi Auvinen and Anu Tuominen and Toni Ahlqvist",
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    Towards long-term foresight for transport : Envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100. / Auvinen, Heidi; Tuominen, Anu; Ahlqvist, Toni.

    In: Foresight, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2012, p. 191 - 206.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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    AU - Auvinen, Heidi

    AU - Tuominen, Anu

    AU - Ahlqvist, Toni

    PY - 2012

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    KW - socio-technical transformation

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