Towards Resilient Material System Modelling

The triple environmental crisis – climate change, biodiversity loss, and resource depletion, is causing irreversible damage to life on Earth, necessitating innovative solutions for sustainable coexistence. As the energy transition aims to tackle greenhouse gas emissions, it risks worsening biodiversity and resource depletion challenges, highlighting the urgent need for resilient material systems. Material stocks and flows are crucial for examining circular systems in transition. As an example, energy transition, unavailability of end-of-life materials and new technology demand might prevent achieving sustainability and circularity targets. Complex systems which are traditionally investigated mainly from a technical perspective, become even more complex when recognizing the social factors and sustainability impacts. This study takes an interdisciplinary approach to this complex system transition and employs material flow modelling to reveal pathways towards sustainable and resilient material systems. The presented framework combines dynamic material flow analysis and prospective demand projections with socio-techno-economic factors and sustainability impacts. It reveals holistically the behavior of material flows in transition and material flow management solutions for resilient and sustainable transition.