TY - JOUR
T1 - Towards sustainable mobility – Transformative scenarios for 2034
AU - Kiviluoto, Katariina
AU - Tapio, Petri
AU - Tuominen, Anu
AU - Lyytimäki, Jari
AU - Ahokas, Ira
AU - Silonsaari, Jonne
AU - Schwanen, Tim
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by The Strategic Research Council of the Academy of Finland [Grant No 320399, 320401, 320402, 320403].
Funding Information:
Municipalities and regional authorities have been the actors primarily responsible for funding and implementing walking and cycling measures. In addition, the national government has funded around 110 local walking and cycling projects through a national mobility management programme, a walking and cycling programme with government grants during the years 2010–2019 ( FTA, 2018b ). The government also increased funding for cycling by a factor of ten in 2020 ( FG, 2019 ). The local projects have been important initiators for local walking and especially cycling promotion and actor collaboration. Many shared city bikes have received financial support and, around the time when our research material was gathered, operated in 19 cities in Finland ( Kerkelä 2019 ). The programme highlights that promoting walking and cycling requires not only creating new pedestrian and cycling routes but also influencing public opinion and raising the quality level of existing route networks, urban form, and service networks.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s)
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - Increasing the share of walking and cycling is one of the building blocks of sustainable mobility transformation. Fundamental changes are needed in society and urban structure to support the integration of walking and cycling into everyday routines. We conducted an online Delphi study with 30 walking and cycling experts during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Finland in the spring of 2020. The aim was to explore transport experts’ views on the future and derive scenarios of walking and cycling with the broader context of the urban mobility system. The scenarios were created using a combination of cluster analysis and qualitative content analysis. In addition, a methodological elaboration of the Disaggregative Delphi analysis was introduced, systematising the analysis of qualitative data. The analysis resulted in five scenarios depicting walking and cycling in 2034: 1. Business as Usual Plus, 2. The Demise of Bus-Transport, 3. The Era of Soft Modes, 4. Public Transport Serving All, and 5. Car-dependent Lifestyles Persist. The scenario set can be used as a basis for strategic transport planning and policy as well as a more practical tool for identifying measures for walking and cycling promotion in urban areas.
AB - Increasing the share of walking and cycling is one of the building blocks of sustainable mobility transformation. Fundamental changes are needed in society and urban structure to support the integration of walking and cycling into everyday routines. We conducted an online Delphi study with 30 walking and cycling experts during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Finland in the spring of 2020. The aim was to explore transport experts’ views on the future and derive scenarios of walking and cycling with the broader context of the urban mobility system. The scenarios were created using a combination of cluster analysis and qualitative content analysis. In addition, a methodological elaboration of the Disaggregative Delphi analysis was introduced, systematising the analysis of qualitative data. The analysis resulted in five scenarios depicting walking and cycling in 2034: 1. Business as Usual Plus, 2. The Demise of Bus-Transport, 3. The Era of Soft Modes, 4. Public Transport Serving All, and 5. Car-dependent Lifestyles Persist. The scenario set can be used as a basis for strategic transport planning and policy as well as a more practical tool for identifying measures for walking and cycling promotion in urban areas.
KW - Alternative futures
KW - Delphi-method
KW - Disaggregative Delphi
KW - Scenarios
KW - Sustainable mobility
KW - Walking and cycling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85138821613&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.trip.2022.100690
DO - 10.1016/j.trip.2022.100690
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85138821613
SN - 2590-1982
VL - 16
JO - Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
JF - Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
M1 - 100690
ER -
