Two-Model Monte Carlo Simulation of Fire Scenarios

Simo Hostikka, Timo Korhonen, Olavi Keski-Rahkonen

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter or book articleProfessional

    Abstract

    A risk analysis tool called Probabilistic Fire Simulator (PFS) is developed for the computation of the distributions of fire model output variables and the sensitivities of the output variables to the inputs. In this work, a new technique is developed for the use of two different fire models in the same Monte Carlo simulation. The Two-Model Monte Carlo technique provides a computationally effective means to improve the accuracy of the fast but inaccurate models, using the results of the more accurate but computationally more demanding models. The technique is tested in two scenarios: calculation of a ceiling jet temperature and a simulation of a simple room fire, and finally applied on NPP relay room fire.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationSAFIR: The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety 2003-2006
    Subtitle of host publicationFinal Report
    Place of PublicationEspoo
    PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
    Pages343-352
    ISBN (Electronic)951-38-6887-7
    ISBN (Print)951-38-6886-9
    Publication statusPublished - 2006
    MoE publication typeNot Eligible

    Publication series

    SeriesVTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes
    Number2363
    ISSN1235-0605

    Fingerprint

    Fires
    Ceilings
    Risk analysis
    Simulators
    Monte Carlo simulation
    Temperature

    Cite this

    Hostikka, S., Korhonen, T., & Keski-Rahkonen, O. (2006). Two-Model Monte Carlo Simulation of Fire Scenarios. In SAFIR: The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety 2003-2006: Final Report (pp. 343-352). Espoo: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes, No. 2363
    Hostikka, Simo ; Korhonen, Timo ; Keski-Rahkonen, Olavi. / Two-Model Monte Carlo Simulation of Fire Scenarios. SAFIR: The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety 2003-2006: Final Report. Espoo : VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2006. pp. 343-352 (VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes; No. 2363).
    @inbook{c1b2a9b3e7e84b5ba1e82c603569ae31,
    title = "Two-Model Monte Carlo Simulation of Fire Scenarios",
    abstract = "A risk analysis tool called Probabilistic Fire Simulator (PFS) is developed for the computation of the distributions of fire model output variables and the sensitivities of the output variables to the inputs. In this work, a new technique is developed for the use of two different fire models in the same Monte Carlo simulation. The Two-Model Monte Carlo technique provides a computationally effective means to improve the accuracy of the fast but inaccurate models, using the results of the more accurate but computationally more demanding models. The technique is tested in two scenarios: calculation of a ceiling jet temperature and a simulation of a simple room fire, and finally applied on NPP relay room fire.",
    author = "Simo Hostikka and Timo Korhonen and Olavi Keski-Rahkonen",
    year = "2006",
    language = "English",
    isbn = "951-38-6886-9",
    series = "VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes",
    publisher = "VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland",
    number = "2363",
    pages = "343--352",
    booktitle = "SAFIR: The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety 2003-2006",
    address = "Finland",

    }

    Hostikka, S, Korhonen, T & Keski-Rahkonen, O 2006, Two-Model Monte Carlo Simulation of Fire Scenarios. in SAFIR: The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety 2003-2006: Final Report. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo, VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes, no. 2363, pp. 343-352.

    Two-Model Monte Carlo Simulation of Fire Scenarios. / Hostikka, Simo; Korhonen, Timo; Keski-Rahkonen, Olavi.

    SAFIR: The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety 2003-2006: Final Report. Espoo : VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2006. p. 343-352 (VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes; No. 2363).

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter or book articleProfessional

    TY - CHAP

    T1 - Two-Model Monte Carlo Simulation of Fire Scenarios

    AU - Hostikka, Simo

    AU - Korhonen, Timo

    AU - Keski-Rahkonen, Olavi

    PY - 2006

    Y1 - 2006

    N2 - A risk analysis tool called Probabilistic Fire Simulator (PFS) is developed for the computation of the distributions of fire model output variables and the sensitivities of the output variables to the inputs. In this work, a new technique is developed for the use of two different fire models in the same Monte Carlo simulation. The Two-Model Monte Carlo technique provides a computationally effective means to improve the accuracy of the fast but inaccurate models, using the results of the more accurate but computationally more demanding models. The technique is tested in two scenarios: calculation of a ceiling jet temperature and a simulation of a simple room fire, and finally applied on NPP relay room fire.

    AB - A risk analysis tool called Probabilistic Fire Simulator (PFS) is developed for the computation of the distributions of fire model output variables and the sensitivities of the output variables to the inputs. In this work, a new technique is developed for the use of two different fire models in the same Monte Carlo simulation. The Two-Model Monte Carlo technique provides a computationally effective means to improve the accuracy of the fast but inaccurate models, using the results of the more accurate but computationally more demanding models. The technique is tested in two scenarios: calculation of a ceiling jet temperature and a simulation of a simple room fire, and finally applied on NPP relay room fire.

    M3 - Chapter or book article

    SN - 951-38-6886-9

    T3 - VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes

    SP - 343

    EP - 352

    BT - SAFIR: The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety 2003-2006

    PB - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

    CY - Espoo

    ER -

    Hostikka S, Korhonen T, Keski-Rahkonen O. Two-Model Monte Carlo Simulation of Fire Scenarios. In SAFIR: The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety 2003-2006: Final Report. Espoo: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. 2006. p. 343-352. (VTT Tiedotteita - Research Notes; No. 2363).