Uncertainty analysis of fuel rod steady state thermal behaviour by the probabilistic response surface method

Jukka Rossi, Risto Sairanen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

 Effects of uncertainties involved in the modelling of fuel rod thermal behaviour and materials data are studied by the probabilistic response surface method. A fuel rod irradiated at the Halden boiling water test reactor is used as an example. The statistical calculations are performed with the PROSA-1 and the fuel behaviour analyses with GAPCON-THERMAL -2 code. Statistical calculations exhibited increasing uncertainty of the estimated consequences with increasing burnup. Differences between a simple and complex response surface increased also with burnup. These differences are largest at the low probability tail areas of the distributions. The two dominating statistical parameters were uncertainties associated with the fission gas release model and fuel thermal conductivity. Other parameters as well as cross-term variations had only minor effects on results.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)163 - 187
Number of pages25
JournalRes Mechanica
Volume19
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 1986
MoE publication typeNot Eligible

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Uncertainty analysis
Boiling liquids
Thermal conductivity
Hot Temperature
Gases
Uncertainty
Water

Cite this

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title = "Uncertainty analysis of fuel rod steady state thermal behaviour by the probabilistic response surface method",
abstract = " Effects of uncertainties involved in the modelling of fuel rod thermal behaviour and materials data are studied by the probabilistic response surface method. A fuel rod irradiated at the Halden boiling water test reactor is used as an example. The statistical calculations are performed with the PROSA-1 and the fuel behaviour analyses with GAPCON-THERMAL -2 code. Statistical calculations exhibited increasing uncertainty of the estimated consequences with increasing burnup. Differences between a simple and complex response surface increased also with burnup. These differences are largest at the low probability tail areas of the distributions. The two dominating statistical parameters were uncertainties associated with the fission gas release model and fuel thermal conductivity. Other parameters as well as cross-term variations had only minor effects on results.",
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journal = "Res Mechanica",
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Uncertainty analysis of fuel rod steady state thermal behaviour by the probabilistic response surface method. / Rossi, Jukka; Sairanen, Risto.

In: Res Mechanica, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1986, p. 163 - 187.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Uncertainty analysis of fuel rod steady state thermal behaviour by the probabilistic response surface method

AU - Rossi, Jukka

AU - Sairanen, Risto

PY - 1986

Y1 - 1986

N2 -  Effects of uncertainties involved in the modelling of fuel rod thermal behaviour and materials data are studied by the probabilistic response surface method. A fuel rod irradiated at the Halden boiling water test reactor is used as an example. The statistical calculations are performed with the PROSA-1 and the fuel behaviour analyses with GAPCON-THERMAL -2 code. Statistical calculations exhibited increasing uncertainty of the estimated consequences with increasing burnup. Differences between a simple and complex response surface increased also with burnup. These differences are largest at the low probability tail areas of the distributions. The two dominating statistical parameters were uncertainties associated with the fission gas release model and fuel thermal conductivity. Other parameters as well as cross-term variations had only minor effects on results.

AB -  Effects of uncertainties involved in the modelling of fuel rod thermal behaviour and materials data are studied by the probabilistic response surface method. A fuel rod irradiated at the Halden boiling water test reactor is used as an example. The statistical calculations are performed with the PROSA-1 and the fuel behaviour analyses with GAPCON-THERMAL -2 code. Statistical calculations exhibited increasing uncertainty of the estimated consequences with increasing burnup. Differences between a simple and complex response surface increased also with burnup. These differences are largest at the low probability tail areas of the distributions. The two dominating statistical parameters were uncertainties associated with the fission gas release model and fuel thermal conductivity. Other parameters as well as cross-term variations had only minor effects on results.

M3 - Article

VL - 19

SP - 163

EP - 187

JO - Res Mechanica

JF - Res Mechanica

SN - 0143-0084

IS - 2

ER -