Uncertainty in agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland

Possibilities to increase accuracy in emission estimates

Suvi Monni (Corresponding Author), Paula Perälä, Kristiina Regina

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol under it, industrial countries have to estimate their greenhouse gas emissions annually, and assess the uncertainties in these estimates. In Finland, agricultural methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions represent 7% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and globally the share is much higher. Agriculture is one of the most uncertain emission categories (representing over 20% of greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty in Finland), due to both high natural variability of the emission sources and poor knowledge of the emission-generating processes. In this paper, we present an uncertainty estimate of agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland in 2002.
Uncertainties were estimated based on measurement data, literature and expert judgement, and total uncertainty in agriculture was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. According to the calculations, agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland were 3.7 to 7.8 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents, 5.4 Tg being the mean value.Estimates of CH4 emissions are more reliable than those of N2O.
N2O from agricultural soils was the most uncertain emission category, and the uncertainty was not reduced by using available national measurement data of N2O fluxes.
Sensitivity study revealed that the uncertainty in total agricultural inventory could be 7% points lower, if more accurate emission estimation methods were used, including 1) improved data collection in area estimates of organic soils, 2) climate-specific methods for N2O from agricultural soils as already presented in literature, and 3) more detailed CH4 estimation methods for enteric fermentation which can be achieved by investigating national circumstances and digestible systems of animals in more detail.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)545-571
JournalMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Volume12
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2007
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

greenhouse gas
estimation method
agricultural soil
agriculture
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Kyoto Protocol
nitrous oxide
organic soil
fermentation
carbon dioxide
methane
animal
climate
simulation
method
emission source
calculation

Keywords

  • agricultural soils
  • agriculture
  • greenhouse gases
  • climate change
  • methane
  • nitrous oxide
  • uncertainty
  • UNFCCC

Cite this

@article{d8b60a35eaa8463b9423929c4f4d2c09,
title = "Uncertainty in agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland: Possibilities to increase accuracy in emission estimates",
abstract = "According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol under it, industrial countries have to estimate their greenhouse gas emissions annually, and assess the uncertainties in these estimates. In Finland, agricultural methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions represent 7{\%} of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and globally the share is much higher. Agriculture is one of the most uncertain emission categories (representing over 20{\%} of greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty in Finland), due to both high natural variability of the emission sources and poor knowledge of the emission-generating processes. In this paper, we present an uncertainty estimate of agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland in 2002. Uncertainties were estimated based on measurement data, literature and expert judgement, and total uncertainty in agriculture was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. According to the calculations, agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland were 3.7 to 7.8 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents, 5.4 Tg being the mean value.Estimates of CH4 emissions are more reliable than those of N2O. N2O from agricultural soils was the most uncertain emission category, and the uncertainty was not reduced by using available national measurement data of N2O fluxes. Sensitivity study revealed that the uncertainty in total agricultural inventory could be 7{\%} points lower, if more accurate emission estimation methods were used, including 1) improved data collection in area estimates of organic soils, 2) climate-specific methods for N2O from agricultural soils as already presented in literature, and 3) more detailed CH4 estimation methods for enteric fermentation which can be achieved by investigating national circumstances and digestible systems of animals in more detail.",
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author = "Suvi Monni and Paula Per{\"a}l{\"a} and Kristiina Regina",
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Uncertainty in agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland : Possibilities to increase accuracy in emission estimates. / Monni, Suvi (Corresponding Author); Perälä, Paula; Regina, Kristiina.

In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 12, No. 4, 2007, p. 545-571.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Uncertainty in agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland

T2 - Possibilities to increase accuracy in emission estimates

AU - Monni, Suvi

AU - Perälä, Paula

AU - Regina, Kristiina

PY - 2007

Y1 - 2007

N2 - According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol under it, industrial countries have to estimate their greenhouse gas emissions annually, and assess the uncertainties in these estimates. In Finland, agricultural methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions represent 7% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and globally the share is much higher. Agriculture is one of the most uncertain emission categories (representing over 20% of greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty in Finland), due to both high natural variability of the emission sources and poor knowledge of the emission-generating processes. In this paper, we present an uncertainty estimate of agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland in 2002. Uncertainties were estimated based on measurement data, literature and expert judgement, and total uncertainty in agriculture was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. According to the calculations, agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland were 3.7 to 7.8 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents, 5.4 Tg being the mean value.Estimates of CH4 emissions are more reliable than those of N2O. N2O from agricultural soils was the most uncertain emission category, and the uncertainty was not reduced by using available national measurement data of N2O fluxes. Sensitivity study revealed that the uncertainty in total agricultural inventory could be 7% points lower, if more accurate emission estimation methods were used, including 1) improved data collection in area estimates of organic soils, 2) climate-specific methods for N2O from agricultural soils as already presented in literature, and 3) more detailed CH4 estimation methods for enteric fermentation which can be achieved by investigating national circumstances and digestible systems of animals in more detail.

AB - According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol under it, industrial countries have to estimate their greenhouse gas emissions annually, and assess the uncertainties in these estimates. In Finland, agricultural methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions represent 7% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and globally the share is much higher. Agriculture is one of the most uncertain emission categories (representing over 20% of greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty in Finland), due to both high natural variability of the emission sources and poor knowledge of the emission-generating processes. In this paper, we present an uncertainty estimate of agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland in 2002. Uncertainties were estimated based on measurement data, literature and expert judgement, and total uncertainty in agriculture was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. According to the calculations, agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions from Finland were 3.7 to 7.8 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents, 5.4 Tg being the mean value.Estimates of CH4 emissions are more reliable than those of N2O. N2O from agricultural soils was the most uncertain emission category, and the uncertainty was not reduced by using available national measurement data of N2O fluxes. Sensitivity study revealed that the uncertainty in total agricultural inventory could be 7% points lower, if more accurate emission estimation methods were used, including 1) improved data collection in area estimates of organic soils, 2) climate-specific methods for N2O from agricultural soils as already presented in literature, and 3) more detailed CH4 estimation methods for enteric fermentation which can be achieved by investigating national circumstances and digestible systems of animals in more detail.

KW - agricultural soils

KW - agriculture

KW - greenhouse gases

KW - climate change

KW - methane

KW - nitrous oxide

KW - uncertainty

KW - UNFCCC

U2 - 10.1007/s11027-006-4584-4

DO - 10.1007/s11027-006-4584-4

M3 - Article

VL - 12

SP - 545

EP - 571

JO - Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

JF - Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

SN - 1381-2386

IS - 4

ER -