TY - JOUR
T1 - Uncertainty in maritime risk analysis
T2 - Extended case study on chemical tanker collisions
AU - Sormunen, Otto Ville E.
AU - Goerlandt, Floris
AU - Häkkinen, Jani
AU - Posti, Antti
AU - Hänninen, Maria
AU - Montewka, Jakub
AU - Ståhlberg, Kaarle
AU - Kujala, Pentti
PY - 2015/8/25
Y1 - 2015/8/25
N2 - Uncertainty is inherent to risk analysis. Therefore, it is extremely important to properly address the issue of uncertainty. In the field of risk analysis for maritime transportation systems, the effect of uncertainty is rarely discussed or quantified. For this reason, this article discusses a case study dealing with risk analysis for a chemical spill in the Gulf of Finland and analyses the related uncertainties by adopting a systematic framework. Risk is assessed in terms of the expected spill frequency and spill volumes caused by collisions between ships and chemical tankers in the Gulf of Finland. This is done by applying a collision consequence with a novel approach-to-collision-speed linkage model and Gulf of Finland-specific causation factors, which are based on reanalysing accident data. This article also presents a metamodel for assessing collision probability with initial vessel speeds for any given scenario where a chemical tanker is about to be struck by another vessel. Even when conducting a risk analysis using state-of-the-art methods, there is still a medium-high degree of uncertainty in the model presented in this article, which only becomes apparent when conducting a systematic uncertainty assessment analysis. However, an uncertainty assessment is an important part of quantitative maritime risk analysis. For this purpose, a qualitative framework for uncertainty assessment analysis is introduced for general use in the field of maritime risk analysis.
AB - Uncertainty is inherent to risk analysis. Therefore, it is extremely important to properly address the issue of uncertainty. In the field of risk analysis for maritime transportation systems, the effect of uncertainty is rarely discussed or quantified. For this reason, this article discusses a case study dealing with risk analysis for a chemical spill in the Gulf of Finland and analyses the related uncertainties by adopting a systematic framework. Risk is assessed in terms of the expected spill frequency and spill volumes caused by collisions between ships and chemical tankers in the Gulf of Finland. This is done by applying a collision consequence with a novel approach-to-collision-speed linkage model and Gulf of Finland-specific causation factors, which are based on reanalysing accident data. This article also presents a metamodel for assessing collision probability with initial vessel speeds for any given scenario where a chemical tanker is about to be struck by another vessel. Even when conducting a risk analysis using state-of-the-art methods, there is still a medium-high degree of uncertainty in the model presented in this article, which only becomes apparent when conducting a systematic uncertainty assessment analysis. However, an uncertainty assessment is an important part of quantitative maritime risk analysis. For this purpose, a qualitative framework for uncertainty assessment analysis is introduced for general use in the field of maritime risk analysis.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84937920393&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/1475090213515640
DO - 10.1177/1475090213515640
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84937920393
SN - 1475-0902
VL - 229
SP - 303
EP - 320
JO - Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment
JF - Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment
IS - 3
ER -