Abstract
Uncertainty is inherent to risk analysis. Therefore, it is extremely important to properly address the issue of uncertainty. In the field of risk analysis for maritime transportation systems, the effect of uncertainty is rarely discussed or quantified. For this reason, this article discusses a case study dealing with risk analysis for a chemical spill in the Gulf of Finland and analyses the related uncertainties by adopting a systematic framework. Risk is assessed in terms of the expected spill frequency and spill volumes caused by collisions between ships and chemical tankers in the Gulf of Finland. This is done by applying a collision consequence with a novel approach-to-collision-speed linkage model and Gulf of Finland-specific causation factors, which are based on reanalysing accident data. This article also presents a metamodel for assessing collision probability with initial vessel speeds for any given scenario where a chemical tanker is about to be struck by another vessel. Even when conducting a risk analysis using state-of-the-art methods, there is still a medium-high degree of uncertainty in the model presented in this article, which only becomes apparent when conducting a systematic uncertainty assessment analysis. However, an uncertainty assessment is an important part of quantitative maritime risk analysis. For this purpose, a qualitative framework for uncertainty assessment analysis is introduced for general use in the field of maritime risk analysis.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 303-320 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment |
| Volume | 229 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 25 Aug 2015 |
| MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |
Funding
This article was prepared as a part of the projects CHEMBALTIC, CAFE and RescOp. The RescOp project is co-funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland, whereas the CHEMBALTIC project is funded by TEKES and the EU in co-operation with Merikotka, NesteOil Ltd, Vopak Ltd, Crystal Pool Ltd, the Port of HaminaKotka, TraFi, the Finnish Port Association and the Finnish Shipowners’ Association. The Competitive Advantage by Safety (CAFE) project is financed by the European Union – European Regional Development Fund through the Regional Council of Päijät-Häme, the City of Kotka, the Finnish Shipowners’ Association and the Kotka Maritime Research Centre Corporate Group: Aker Arctic Technology Inc., the Port of HaminaKotka, the Port of Helsinki, Kristina Cruises Ltd and Meriaura Ltd. The authors wish to express their gratitude to the funders.
