Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power

Hannele Holttinen (Corresponding Author), Michael Milligan, Brendan Kirby, Tom Acker, Viktoria Neimane, Tom Molinski

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    120 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The variability inherent in wind power production will require increased flexibility in the power system, when a significant amount of load is covered with wind power. Standard deviation (σ) of variability in load and net load (load net of wind) has been used when estimating the effect of wind power on the short term reserves of the power system. This method is straightforward and easy to use when data on wind power and load exist. In this paper, the use of standard deviation as a measure of reserve requirement is studied. The confidence level given by ±3-6 times σ is compared to other means of deriving the extra reserve requirements over different operating time scales. Also taking into account the total variability of load and wind generation and only the unpredicted part of the variability of load and wind is compared. Using an exceedence level can provide an alternative approach to confidence level by standard deviation that provides the same level of risk. The results from US indicate that the number of σ that result in 99% exceedence in load following time scale is between 2.3-2.5 and the number of σ for 99.7% exceedence is 3.4. For regulation time scale the number of σ for 99.7 % exceedence is 5.6. The results from the Nordic countries indicate that the number of σ should be increased by 67-100% if better load predictability is taken into account (combining wind variability with load forecast errors).
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)355-377
    Number of pages23
    JournalWind Engineering
    Volume32
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2008
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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    Wind power

    Keywords

    • wind power
    • reserve requirements

    Cite this

    Holttinen, H., Milligan, M., Kirby, B., Acker, T., Neimane, V., & Molinski, T. (2008). Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power. Wind Engineering, 32(4), 355-377. https://doi.org/10.1260/0309-524X.32.4.355
    Holttinen, Hannele ; Milligan, Michael ; Kirby, Brendan ; Acker, Tom ; Neimane, Viktoria ; Molinski, Tom. / Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power. In: Wind Engineering. 2008 ; Vol. 32, No. 4. pp. 355-377.
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    abstract = "The variability inherent in wind power production will require increased flexibility in the power system, when a significant amount of load is covered with wind power. Standard deviation (σ) of variability in load and net load (load net of wind) has been used when estimating the effect of wind power on the short term reserves of the power system. This method is straightforward and easy to use when data on wind power and load exist. In this paper, the use of standard deviation as a measure of reserve requirement is studied. The confidence level given by ±3-6 times σ is compared to other means of deriving the extra reserve requirements over different operating time scales. Also taking into account the total variability of load and wind generation and only the unpredicted part of the variability of load and wind is compared. Using an exceedence level can provide an alternative approach to confidence level by standard deviation that provides the same level of risk. The results from US indicate that the number of σ that result in 99{\%} exceedence in load following time scale is between 2.3-2.5 and the number of σ for 99.7{\%} exceedence is 3.4. For regulation time scale the number of σ for 99.7 {\%} exceedence is 5.6. The results from the Nordic countries indicate that the number of σ should be increased by 67-100{\%} if better load predictability is taken into account (combining wind variability with load forecast errors).",
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    Holttinen, H, Milligan, M, Kirby, B, Acker, T, Neimane, V & Molinski, T 2008, 'Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power', Wind Engineering, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 355-377. https://doi.org/10.1260/0309-524X.32.4.355

    Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power. / Holttinen, Hannele (Corresponding Author); Milligan, Michael; Kirby, Brendan; Acker, Tom; Neimane, Viktoria; Molinski, Tom.

    In: Wind Engineering, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2008, p. 355-377.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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