Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power

Hannele Holttinen (Corresponding Author), Michael Milligan, Brendan Kirby, Tom Acker, Viktoria Neimane, Tom Molinski

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

119 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The variability inherent in wind power production will require increased flexibility in the power system, when a significant amount of load is covered with wind power. Standard deviation (σ) of variability in load and net load (load net of wind) has been used when estimating the effect of wind power on the short term reserves of the power system. This method is straightforward and easy to use when data on wind power and load exist. In this paper, the use of standard deviation as a measure of reserve requirement is studied. The confidence level given by ±3-6 times σ is compared to other means of deriving the extra reserve requirements over different operating time scales. Also taking into account the total variability of load and wind generation and only the unpredicted part of the variability of load and wind is compared. Using an exceedence level can provide an alternative approach to confidence level by standard deviation that provides the same level of risk. The results from US indicate that the number of σ that result in 99% exceedence in load following time scale is between 2.3-2.5 and the number of σ for 99.7% exceedence is 3.4. For regulation time scale the number of σ for 99.7 % exceedence is 5.6. The results from the Nordic countries indicate that the number of σ should be increased by 67-100% if better load predictability is taken into account (combining wind variability with load forecast errors).
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)355-377
Number of pages23
JournalWind Engineering
Volume32
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

Wind power

Keywords

  • wind power
  • reserve requirements

Cite this

Holttinen, H., Milligan, M., Kirby, B., Acker, T., Neimane, V., & Molinski, T. (2008). Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power. Wind Engineering, 32(4), 355-377. https://doi.org/10.1260/0309-524X.32.4.355
Holttinen, Hannele ; Milligan, Michael ; Kirby, Brendan ; Acker, Tom ; Neimane, Viktoria ; Molinski, Tom. / Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power. In: Wind Engineering. 2008 ; Vol. 32, No. 4. pp. 355-377.
@article{7ff17477aeee406ca918a707d136eff2,
title = "Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power",
abstract = "The variability inherent in wind power production will require increased flexibility in the power system, when a significant amount of load is covered with wind power. Standard deviation (σ) of variability in load and net load (load net of wind) has been used when estimating the effect of wind power on the short term reserves of the power system. This method is straightforward and easy to use when data on wind power and load exist. In this paper, the use of standard deviation as a measure of reserve requirement is studied. The confidence level given by ±3-6 times σ is compared to other means of deriving the extra reserve requirements over different operating time scales. Also taking into account the total variability of load and wind generation and only the unpredicted part of the variability of load and wind is compared. Using an exceedence level can provide an alternative approach to confidence level by standard deviation that provides the same level of risk. The results from US indicate that the number of σ that result in 99{\%} exceedence in load following time scale is between 2.3-2.5 and the number of σ for 99.7{\%} exceedence is 3.4. For regulation time scale the number of σ for 99.7 {\%} exceedence is 5.6. The results from the Nordic countries indicate that the number of σ should be increased by 67-100{\%} if better load predictability is taken into account (combining wind variability with load forecast errors).",
keywords = "wind power, reserve requirements",
author = "Hannele Holttinen and Michael Milligan and Brendan Kirby and Tom Acker and Viktoria Neimane and Tom Molinski",
note = "Project code: 4563",
year = "2008",
doi = "10.1260/0309-524X.32.4.355",
language = "English",
volume = "32",
pages = "355--377",
journal = "Wind Engineering",
issn = "0309-524X",
publisher = "SAGE Publications",
number = "4",

}

Holttinen, H, Milligan, M, Kirby, B, Acker, T, Neimane, V & Molinski, T 2008, 'Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power', Wind Engineering, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 355-377. https://doi.org/10.1260/0309-524X.32.4.355

Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power. / Holttinen, Hannele (Corresponding Author); Milligan, Michael; Kirby, Brendan; Acker, Tom; Neimane, Viktoria; Molinski, Tom.

In: Wind Engineering, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2008, p. 355-377.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Using standard deviation as a measure of increased operational reserve requirement for wind power

AU - Holttinen, Hannele

AU - Milligan, Michael

AU - Kirby, Brendan

AU - Acker, Tom

AU - Neimane, Viktoria

AU - Molinski, Tom

N1 - Project code: 4563

PY - 2008

Y1 - 2008

N2 - The variability inherent in wind power production will require increased flexibility in the power system, when a significant amount of load is covered with wind power. Standard deviation (σ) of variability in load and net load (load net of wind) has been used when estimating the effect of wind power on the short term reserves of the power system. This method is straightforward and easy to use when data on wind power and load exist. In this paper, the use of standard deviation as a measure of reserve requirement is studied. The confidence level given by ±3-6 times σ is compared to other means of deriving the extra reserve requirements over different operating time scales. Also taking into account the total variability of load and wind generation and only the unpredicted part of the variability of load and wind is compared. Using an exceedence level can provide an alternative approach to confidence level by standard deviation that provides the same level of risk. The results from US indicate that the number of σ that result in 99% exceedence in load following time scale is between 2.3-2.5 and the number of σ for 99.7% exceedence is 3.4. For regulation time scale the number of σ for 99.7 % exceedence is 5.6. The results from the Nordic countries indicate that the number of σ should be increased by 67-100% if better load predictability is taken into account (combining wind variability with load forecast errors).

AB - The variability inherent in wind power production will require increased flexibility in the power system, when a significant amount of load is covered with wind power. Standard deviation (σ) of variability in load and net load (load net of wind) has been used when estimating the effect of wind power on the short term reserves of the power system. This method is straightforward and easy to use when data on wind power and load exist. In this paper, the use of standard deviation as a measure of reserve requirement is studied. The confidence level given by ±3-6 times σ is compared to other means of deriving the extra reserve requirements over different operating time scales. Also taking into account the total variability of load and wind generation and only the unpredicted part of the variability of load and wind is compared. Using an exceedence level can provide an alternative approach to confidence level by standard deviation that provides the same level of risk. The results from US indicate that the number of σ that result in 99% exceedence in load following time scale is between 2.3-2.5 and the number of σ for 99.7% exceedence is 3.4. For regulation time scale the number of σ for 99.7 % exceedence is 5.6. The results from the Nordic countries indicate that the number of σ should be increased by 67-100% if better load predictability is taken into account (combining wind variability with load forecast errors).

KW - wind power

KW - reserve requirements

U2 - 10.1260/0309-524X.32.4.355

DO - 10.1260/0309-524X.32.4.355

M3 - Article

VL - 32

SP - 355

EP - 377

JO - Wind Engineering

JF - Wind Engineering

SN - 0309-524X

IS - 4

ER -