Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference abstract in proceedingsScientific

Abstract

Climate change imposes new risks with high uncertainty. There is a lack of practicable advice and methods how to manage these new emerging risks. Hence, the new risk assessment methods for identifying and assessing the risk are needed. It is challenging to describe the descriptive uncertainty (uncertainty of scenarios) and measurement uncertainty (uncertainty of harmful event) to decision makers who have to make investment decisions. In some cases changes can also be opportunities. This paper presents a procedure on how to analyse and prioritise future climate risks in practice. The use of procedure requires networking of natural scientists (hydrologists, biologists, meteorologists etc) and risk analysers; therefore the process should be directed and documented well. The main idea of the procedure is to use four fold tables to visualise the two uncertainties. With the help of this visualisation decision makers will be able to decide what kind of adaptation operations they should enforce. In this paper we focus on developing the visualisation of the risk identification and assessment process. In the study we intend to integrate the climate scenarios and technical risk assessment traditions in order to achieve a practical method for reporting climate change risk assessment in hydro power plants. The paper describes the development and the tools of the risk assessment process. Finnish hydropower company Kemijoki Ltd was used as a pilot case in our study. The study is a part of the Nordic Energy Research funded Climate and Energy Systems (CES) project.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationFrom the everyday to the extraordinary
Subtitle of host publicationSRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden
Pages72
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 2009
EventSRA-Europe 2009 Annual Meeting - Karlstad , Sweden
Duration: 28 Jun 20091 Jul 2009

Conference

ConferenceSRA-Europe 2009 Annual Meeting
CountrySweden
CityKarlstad
Period28/06/091/07/09

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visualization
climate
risk assessment
climate change
networking
assessment method
energy
power plant
fold
decision
method

Cite this

Molarius, R., Wessberg, N., Keränen, J., & Schabel, J. (2009). Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland. In From the everyday to the extraordinary: SRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden (pp. 72)
Molarius, Riitta ; Wessberg, Nina ; Keränen, Jaana ; Schabel, Jari. / Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland. From the everyday to the extraordinary: SRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden. 2009. pp. 72
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abstract = "Climate change imposes new risks with high uncertainty. There is a lack of practicable advice and methods how to manage these new emerging risks. Hence, the new risk assessment methods for identifying and assessing the risk are needed. It is challenging to describe the descriptive uncertainty (uncertainty of scenarios) and measurement uncertainty (uncertainty of harmful event) to decision makers who have to make investment decisions. In some cases changes can also be opportunities. This paper presents a procedure on how to analyse and prioritise future climate risks in practice. The use of procedure requires networking of natural scientists (hydrologists, biologists, meteorologists etc) and risk analysers; therefore the process should be directed and documented well. The main idea of the procedure is to use four fold tables to visualise the two uncertainties. With the help of this visualisation decision makers will be able to decide what kind of adaptation operations they should enforce. In this paper we focus on developing the visualisation of the risk identification and assessment process. In the study we intend to integrate the climate scenarios and technical risk assessment traditions in order to achieve a practical method for reporting climate change risk assessment in hydro power plants. The paper describes the development and the tools of the risk assessment process. Finnish hydropower company Kemijoki Ltd was used as a pilot case in our study. The study is a part of the Nordic Energy Research funded Climate and Energy Systems (CES) project.",
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Molarius, R, Wessberg, N, Keränen, J & Schabel, J 2009, Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland. in From the everyday to the extraordinary: SRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden. pp. 72, SRA-Europe 2009 Annual Meeting, Karlstad , Sweden, 28/06/09.

Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland. / Molarius, Riitta; Wessberg, Nina; Keränen, Jaana; Schabel, Jari.

From the everyday to the extraordinary: SRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden. 2009. p. 72.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference abstract in proceedingsScientific

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T1 - Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland

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N1 - Only abstract reviewed + submitted Project code: 15934

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - Climate change imposes new risks with high uncertainty. There is a lack of practicable advice and methods how to manage these new emerging risks. Hence, the new risk assessment methods for identifying and assessing the risk are needed. It is challenging to describe the descriptive uncertainty (uncertainty of scenarios) and measurement uncertainty (uncertainty of harmful event) to decision makers who have to make investment decisions. In some cases changes can also be opportunities. This paper presents a procedure on how to analyse and prioritise future climate risks in practice. The use of procedure requires networking of natural scientists (hydrologists, biologists, meteorologists etc) and risk analysers; therefore the process should be directed and documented well. The main idea of the procedure is to use four fold tables to visualise the two uncertainties. With the help of this visualisation decision makers will be able to decide what kind of adaptation operations they should enforce. In this paper we focus on developing the visualisation of the risk identification and assessment process. In the study we intend to integrate the climate scenarios and technical risk assessment traditions in order to achieve a practical method for reporting climate change risk assessment in hydro power plants. The paper describes the development and the tools of the risk assessment process. Finnish hydropower company Kemijoki Ltd was used as a pilot case in our study. The study is a part of the Nordic Energy Research funded Climate and Energy Systems (CES) project.

AB - Climate change imposes new risks with high uncertainty. There is a lack of practicable advice and methods how to manage these new emerging risks. Hence, the new risk assessment methods for identifying and assessing the risk are needed. It is challenging to describe the descriptive uncertainty (uncertainty of scenarios) and measurement uncertainty (uncertainty of harmful event) to decision makers who have to make investment decisions. In some cases changes can also be opportunities. This paper presents a procedure on how to analyse and prioritise future climate risks in practice. The use of procedure requires networking of natural scientists (hydrologists, biologists, meteorologists etc) and risk analysers; therefore the process should be directed and documented well. The main idea of the procedure is to use four fold tables to visualise the two uncertainties. With the help of this visualisation decision makers will be able to decide what kind of adaptation operations they should enforce. In this paper we focus on developing the visualisation of the risk identification and assessment process. In the study we intend to integrate the climate scenarios and technical risk assessment traditions in order to achieve a practical method for reporting climate change risk assessment in hydro power plants. The paper describes the development and the tools of the risk assessment process. Finnish hydropower company Kemijoki Ltd was used as a pilot case in our study. The study is a part of the Nordic Energy Research funded Climate and Energy Systems (CES) project.

M3 - Conference abstract in proceedings

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Molarius R, Wessberg N, Keränen J, Schabel J. Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland. In From the everyday to the extraordinary: SRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden. 2009. p. 72