Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference abstract in proceedingsScientific

    Abstract

    Climate change imposes new risks with high uncertainty. There is a lack of practicable advice and methods how to manage these new emerging risks. Hence, the new risk assessment methods for identifying and assessing the risk are needed. It is challenging to describe the descriptive uncertainty (uncertainty of scenarios) and measurement uncertainty (uncertainty of harmful event) to decision makers who have to make investment decisions. In some cases changes can also be opportunities. This paper presents a procedure on how to analyse and prioritise future climate risks in practice. The use of procedure requires networking of natural scientists (hydrologists, biologists, meteorologists etc) and risk analysers; therefore the process should be directed and documented well. The main idea of the procedure is to use four fold tables to visualise the two uncertainties. With the help of this visualisation decision makers will be able to decide what kind of adaptation operations they should enforce. In this paper we focus on developing the visualisation of the risk identification and assessment process. In the study we intend to integrate the climate scenarios and technical risk assessment traditions in order to achieve a practical method for reporting climate change risk assessment in hydro power plants. The paper describes the development and the tools of the risk assessment process. Finnish hydropower company Kemijoki Ltd was used as a pilot case in our study. The study is a part of the Nordic Energy Research funded Climate and Energy Systems (CES) project.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationFrom the everyday to the extraordinary
    Subtitle of host publicationSRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden
    Pages72
    Number of pages1
    Publication statusPublished - 2009
    EventSRA-Europe 2009 Annual Meeting - Karlstad , Sweden
    Duration: 28 Jun 20091 Jul 2009

    Conference

    ConferenceSRA-Europe 2009 Annual Meeting
    CountrySweden
    CityKarlstad
    Period28/06/091/07/09

    Fingerprint

    visualization
    climate
    risk assessment
    climate change
    networking
    assessment method
    energy
    power plant
    fold
    decision
    method

    Cite this

    Molarius, R., Wessberg, N., Keränen, J., & Schabel, J. (2009). Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland. In From the everyday to the extraordinary: SRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden (pp. 72)
    Molarius, Riitta ; Wessberg, Nina ; Keränen, Jaana ; Schabel, Jari. / Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland. From the everyday to the extraordinary: SRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden. 2009. pp. 72
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    title = "Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland",
    abstract = "Climate change imposes new risks with high uncertainty. There is a lack of practicable advice and methods how to manage these new emerging risks. Hence, the new risk assessment methods for identifying and assessing the risk are needed. It is challenging to describe the descriptive uncertainty (uncertainty of scenarios) and measurement uncertainty (uncertainty of harmful event) to decision makers who have to make investment decisions. In some cases changes can also be opportunities. This paper presents a procedure on how to analyse and prioritise future climate risks in practice. The use of procedure requires networking of natural scientists (hydrologists, biologists, meteorologists etc) and risk analysers; therefore the process should be directed and documented well. The main idea of the procedure is to use four fold tables to visualise the two uncertainties. With the help of this visualisation decision makers will be able to decide what kind of adaptation operations they should enforce. In this paper we focus on developing the visualisation of the risk identification and assessment process. In the study we intend to integrate the climate scenarios and technical risk assessment traditions in order to achieve a practical method for reporting climate change risk assessment in hydro power plants. The paper describes the development and the tools of the risk assessment process. Finnish hydropower company Kemijoki Ltd was used as a pilot case in our study. The study is a part of the Nordic Energy Research funded Climate and Energy Systems (CES) project.",
    author = "Riitta Molarius and Nina Wessberg and Jaana Ker{\"a}nen and Jari Schabel",
    note = "Only abstract reviewed + submitted Project code: 15934",
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    language = "English",
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    booktitle = "From the everyday to the extraordinary",

    }

    Molarius, R, Wessberg, N, Keränen, J & Schabel, J 2009, Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland. in From the everyday to the extraordinary: SRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden. pp. 72, SRA-Europe 2009 Annual Meeting, Karlstad , Sweden, 28/06/09.

    Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland. / Molarius, Riitta; Wessberg, Nina; Keränen, Jaana; Schabel, Jari.

    From the everyday to the extraordinary: SRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden. 2009. p. 72.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference abstract in proceedingsScientific

    TY - CHAP

    T1 - Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland

    AU - Molarius, Riitta

    AU - Wessberg, Nina

    AU - Keränen, Jaana

    AU - Schabel, Jari

    N1 - Only abstract reviewed + submitted Project code: 15934

    PY - 2009

    Y1 - 2009

    N2 - Climate change imposes new risks with high uncertainty. There is a lack of practicable advice and methods how to manage these new emerging risks. Hence, the new risk assessment methods for identifying and assessing the risk are needed. It is challenging to describe the descriptive uncertainty (uncertainty of scenarios) and measurement uncertainty (uncertainty of harmful event) to decision makers who have to make investment decisions. In some cases changes can also be opportunities. This paper presents a procedure on how to analyse and prioritise future climate risks in practice. The use of procedure requires networking of natural scientists (hydrologists, biologists, meteorologists etc) and risk analysers; therefore the process should be directed and documented well. The main idea of the procedure is to use four fold tables to visualise the two uncertainties. With the help of this visualisation decision makers will be able to decide what kind of adaptation operations they should enforce. In this paper we focus on developing the visualisation of the risk identification and assessment process. In the study we intend to integrate the climate scenarios and technical risk assessment traditions in order to achieve a practical method for reporting climate change risk assessment in hydro power plants. The paper describes the development and the tools of the risk assessment process. Finnish hydropower company Kemijoki Ltd was used as a pilot case in our study. The study is a part of the Nordic Energy Research funded Climate and Energy Systems (CES) project.

    AB - Climate change imposes new risks with high uncertainty. There is a lack of practicable advice and methods how to manage these new emerging risks. Hence, the new risk assessment methods for identifying and assessing the risk are needed. It is challenging to describe the descriptive uncertainty (uncertainty of scenarios) and measurement uncertainty (uncertainty of harmful event) to decision makers who have to make investment decisions. In some cases changes can also be opportunities. This paper presents a procedure on how to analyse and prioritise future climate risks in practice. The use of procedure requires networking of natural scientists (hydrologists, biologists, meteorologists etc) and risk analysers; therefore the process should be directed and documented well. The main idea of the procedure is to use four fold tables to visualise the two uncertainties. With the help of this visualisation decision makers will be able to decide what kind of adaptation operations they should enforce. In this paper we focus on developing the visualisation of the risk identification and assessment process. In the study we intend to integrate the climate scenarios and technical risk assessment traditions in order to achieve a practical method for reporting climate change risk assessment in hydro power plants. The paper describes the development and the tools of the risk assessment process. Finnish hydropower company Kemijoki Ltd was used as a pilot case in our study. The study is a part of the Nordic Energy Research funded Climate and Energy Systems (CES) project.

    M3 - Conference abstract in proceedings

    SP - 72

    BT - From the everyday to the extraordinary

    ER -

    Molarius R, Wessberg N, Keränen J, Schabel J. Visualization of risk uncertainties in case of future climate risks - the case hydropower plant in Finland. In From the everyday to the extraordinary: SRA-Europe Conference 28 June - 1 July 2009 Karlstad, Sweden. 2009. p. 72