Weak signals and damage scenarios - Systematics to identify weak signals and their sources related to mass transport attacks

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Mass transport systems are vital for big cities and their disruption may have severe consequences for the economy, safety and security of the general public. Thus far, the attacks on mass transport have been about twice as lethal as terrorist attacks overall. Mass transport systems are typically of open design layout with multiple access points, and these characteristics make the process of screening challenging. Therefore, the early identification of an attack plan is the most efficient way to protect such systems. This paper aims to better understand the attack phenomenon and to develop a new approach for the systematic identification of possible weak signals and their sources. If such weak signals can be timely detected and correctly interpreted, this could improve awareness and thus possibilities for intervention. The developed approach is demonstrated by applying it to two well-known but different cases: the Tokyo sarin attack of 1995 and the 2005 London bombings.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)180-190
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume104
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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Sarin
Tokyo
Mass transfer
Safety
Bombing
Screening
Weak signal
Attack
Scenarios
Damage

Keywords

  • weak signal
  • mass transport
  • terror attack

Cite this

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title = "Weak signals and damage scenarios - Systematics to identify weak signals and their sources related to mass transport attacks",
abstract = "Mass transport systems are vital for big cities and their disruption may have severe consequences for the economy, safety and security of the general public. Thus far, the attacks on mass transport have been about twice as lethal as terrorist attacks overall. Mass transport systems are typically of open design layout with multiple access points, and these characteristics make the process of screening challenging. Therefore, the early identification of an attack plan is the most efficient way to protect such systems. This paper aims to better understand the attack phenomenon and to develop a new approach for the systematic identification of possible weak signals and their sources. If such weak signals can be timely detected and correctly interpreted, this could improve awareness and thus possibilities for intervention. The developed approach is demonstrated by applying it to two well-known but different cases: the Tokyo sarin attack of 1995 and the 2005 London bombings.",
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author = "Raija Koivisto and Ilpo Kulmala and Nadezhda Gotcheva",
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AU - Koivisto, Raija

AU - Kulmala, Ilpo

AU - Gotcheva, Nadezhda

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

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AB - Mass transport systems are vital for big cities and their disruption may have severe consequences for the economy, safety and security of the general public. Thus far, the attacks on mass transport have been about twice as lethal as terrorist attacks overall. Mass transport systems are typically of open design layout with multiple access points, and these characteristics make the process of screening challenging. Therefore, the early identification of an attack plan is the most efficient way to protect such systems. This paper aims to better understand the attack phenomenon and to develop a new approach for the systematic identification of possible weak signals and their sources. If such weak signals can be timely detected and correctly interpreted, this could improve awareness and thus possibilities for intervention. The developed approach is demonstrated by applying it to two well-known but different cases: the Tokyo sarin attack of 1995 and the 2005 London bombings.

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