Wear evolution in rolling element bearings: a system model

Rolling element bearing is one of the most critical components that determine the machinery health and its remaining lifetime. Wear prognosis aims to predict the defect and its evolution progress before it occurs. The fundamental need for predictive intelligence tools is to monitor the degradation rather than just detecting the defects, otherwise it will be hard to optimise the asset utilisation in cost effective manner. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a prognosis model which is able to predict the evolution of rolling contact wear, using systems dynamics approach. The dynamic development of wear process is proposed. It considers multiple wear mechanisms and their interactions with respect to surface topological and tribological changes. Moreover, it considers the stress concentration mechanisms and their propagation processes. The study shows a principal agreement between the simulated and measured curves which is important to carry out useful lifetime prediction.